André Luiz de Carvalho
Federal University of Alagoas, Brazil
Title: Climate changes and sugarcane productivity in northeastern region of Brazil
Biography
Biography: André Luiz de Carvalho
Abstract
Climate changes have stimulated the increase in the use of renewable energy to replace fossil fuels, because their lower impact on the climate. Biomass is one of the main renewable energy sources, especially sugarcane that is used for production of ethanol and thermal energy. In northeastern Brazil, sugarcane is grown in the Atlantic Forest region (Zona da Mata), mainly between Alagoas and ParaÃba states. This region presents great rainfall variability, with high precipitation in coastal strip, favoring sugarcane cultivation. However, some areas have high water deficit, especially in the north portion of northeastern region. In these areas, sugarcane cultivation is limited and may become even drier in the future, according to the climate change projections generated by the main global circulation models. Thus, computational models like Century model, simulating carbon cycle and nutrients dynamics in agricultural and forestry systems have been used to reproduce sugarcane behavior on several management and climate scenarios. These simulations aim to generate prior information of production to allow the adoption of adaptation strategies to avoid losses in the future. Climate scenarios projected by global climate models and regionalized for specific areas by the Eta/CPTEC model are used to simulate sugarcane potential productivity in future climate. Climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gas emission projections defined by the IPCC: A2 scenario (high emissions) and B2 (low emissions). The combined use of crop simulation models in agronomic systems with climate scenarios can become viable further analysis of the possible impacts of climate changes on potential sugarcane yield.